Insights from TAL Global’s Managing Directors on the Future of Risk…
What threats are emerging, and what will shape the way individuals, organizations, and nations manage risk? TAL Global’s senior advisors share their perspective on what’s coming and what leaders must be ready for.
These are professionals who have shaped crisis responses for governments, designed risk strategies for Fortune 500 companies, and guided organizations through the most volatile moments of the last two decades.
Dr. Doron Pely focuses on the growing strain of social polarization, digital tribalism, and the limits of AI in resolving deeply human conflicts.
The Future of Conflict Resolution/Management and Risk Assessment
As the first quarter of the 21st century nearing its close, the globalization fantasy of the past forty years is receding rapidly into exactly that – a remote fantasy. The number of conflicts in the world is growing, embroiling regions, countries, and national blocks in direct and proxy fights that drain the global economy of resources and goodwill.
Countries throughout the world abandon their dream of international cooperation and collaboration and retreat into isolationist, populist, defensive and intolerant posture. Unless you are a weapons manufacturer, the horizon – economic, social and security – looks bleak. What can individuals, organizations and nations do to improve their odds of surviving, even thriving in such an environment?
Social Conflicts and Social Media-Related Conflicts
Social media is a people connector, but also a people divider. “If the decade that passed since the appearance of the first social media platforms is any indication of what’s to come,” says Dr. Pely, “cultural divides between people, ideological blocks, countries and organizations are likely to grow and intensify in the near future.”
According to Dr. Pely, social media platforms today provide silos of one-sided information that reinforce people’s beliefs in their own “truths” but shield them from competing narratives. “Facts are increasingly irrelevant,” he says, “as we mostly feed on a diet made of strictly perception-reinforcing insights.”
The result, according to Dr. Pely, is that communication channels between divergent groups, be it in the workplace, schools, voluntary organizations or international corporations will likely come under increasing stress, and all affected will do well to be ready to deal with such situations proactively, rather than improvise as crises escalate.
Conflict Management/Resolution and Risk Assessment in the Age of AI
Unsurprisingly, the meteoric ascent of AI, at this point mostly in people’s imaginations, has included conflict resolution to its forms, particularly negotiation and mediation. AI-powered apps offer “… a dynamic approach to resolving disputes.” The promise, according to Dr. Pely rests on the assumption that AI-based mediation apps can quickly process vast amounts of data, identifying patterns and insights that could aid in solving complex conflicts.
While that may be a reasonable assumption, assuming that such apps will then be able to propose and implement superior step-by-step mediation processes, ask relevant questions, and deal with disputants’ emotions, are overly optimistic.
Worse so, assuming that such apps’ will be able to successfully detect and integrate “surprises”, that may be hidden from the disputants until they pop up unexpectedly, prompted by triggers that may or may not exist a moment before, is, according to Dr. Pely, a bit of a stretch at this time and probably in the near future. Conflicts and their resolution are such intimately human features of life that, like empathy, it will probably be a while before statistical algorithms can successfully replace humans.
What AI tools may excel in, according to Dr. Pely, is in the performance of initial data gathering and organization – essential early stages in every dispute resolution or risk assessment process.
Still, at the end of the day, according to Dr. Pely, the essentially human qualities of creativity, imagination, associative cognition, improvisation, and “thinking outside the box” will remain crucial for the successful performing of both AI-assisted conflict resolution and risk assessment tasks. So, for the foreseeable future, AI is likely to augment, streamline, speedup and possibly enrich these functions, but not replace the human element within them
About Dr. Doron Pely
Dr. Pely’s academic and business career has centered on increasing security and alleviating conflicts using a multi-disciplinary approach, combining sociology, psychology and neuroscience.
For the past decade, Dr. Pely’s research and writing has been focused on cross-cultural conflict management and resolution practices, at the organization and community levels. Dr. Pely published multiple articles in peer-review journals, exploring culture-specific aspects of indigenous dispute resolution mechanisms, and comparing them to Western approaches. Dr. Pely published six books, both fiction and non-fiction.
Dr. Pely’s professional career spans a wide spectrum of activities, including military service, undercover police intelligence, journalism, international business intelligence, entrepreneurship, executive management, large-scale risk analysis, and mediation.
In addition to his work at TAL Global, Dr. Pely is a University of Southern California (USC) Homegrown Violent Extremism (HVE) Studies Associate at the Safe Communities Institute (part of the Sol Price School of Public Policy). He lectured at universities around the world, including France and Israel, and has advised on cross-cultural conflict management to the US Army Academy at West Point.
Dr. Pely holds a B.Sc. degree in Computer Science, an MA in Conflict Resolution, and a PhD from Kings College, London.
◼︎
About TAL Global
TAL Global specializes in security consulting and risk management, offering tailored solutions for your organization. Our experts are recognized thought leaders in conducting comprehensive risk assessments, developing strategic plans, and delivering engaging training programs.
With decades of experience and successful interventions, we have consistently protected people and assets. Follow us on LinkedIn and YouTube for tips and strategies. You can also Talk To Us for more custom-made, expert solutions.
