In the dynamic landscape of global politics and security, staying informed and prepared is more important than ever. We came across the recently published Global Political Risk Calendar by NGS Security Consulting and think it’s an informative write-up and tool. It offers a comprehensive analysis of significant political events and risks anticipated for the remainder of 2024. Included in this article are some of the highlights, providing essential insights for proactive planning.
Upcoming Elections
Brazil – October 6, 2024: Municipal Elections
Brazil’s municipal elections have historically been periods of heightened violence, and this year is likely to continue that trend. The country’s political risk climate has been volatile, with local governance elections often serving as flashpoints for unrest. Businesses and residents should be prepared for potential disruptions and security challenges during this period.
United States – November 5, 2024: Nationwide Elections
The United States will hold nationwide elections, including presidential, legislative, gubernatorial, and municipal elections. These elections are anticipated to significantly influence the political risk climate and economic policies, both domestically and internationally. The potential for civil unrest and heightened security measures will be high, particularly given the polarized political environment.
South Sudan – December 27, 2024: General Elections
South Sudan is scheduled to hold its first general elections at the end of 2024, following a 2018 transition agreement. However, there are significant doubts about the country’s preparedness, as high levels of intercommunal violence continue. The 2018 agreement that ended South Sudan’s civil war appears increasingly precarious, raising concerns about the stability and security of the electoral process.
Other Notable Elections
In addition to these critical elections, Austria’s parliamentary election on September 29, Algeria’s presidential election on September 7, and Georgia’s parliamentary election on October 26 are also significant events to watch, each with its own potential for regional impact and unrest.
Ongoing Conflicts and Key Events
The Conflict in Ukraine
The conflict in Ukraine remains a significant global concern. The ongoing war has caused widespread devastation and displacement, with international implications for security, economics, and humanitarian efforts. The conflict has drawn in support and condemnation from various global powers, affecting international relations and stability.
Anniversary of the Israel-Hamas Conflict
Anniversaries hold significant importance in the Middle East, and the one-year anniversary of the Israel-Hamas conflict is no different. It is noted that Hamas launched its attack on October 7, possibly to coincide with the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War on October 6, 1973. Given the unresolved issues in Gaza and the absence of a decisive outcome in the conflict, there is a valid concern that tensions may escalate again around this time.
The Israeli government has encountered increasing international scrutiny regarding its approach to the Gaza conflict. Arab states that have recently normalized relations with Israel, such as the UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, might reassess their positions, potentially affecting regional dynamics.
The international community aims to ensure that funding for Gaza’s reconstruction is utilized effectively despite ongoing challenges. Without a comprehensive peace agreement, significant reconstruction efforts may face delays, and Israel’s international relations could remain complex into 2025.
Myanmar Civil War
More than three years after the military coup, the dynamics in the Myanmar civil war have shifted significantly. Since November 2023, government-aligned militias (known as the People’s Defence Forces, or PDF) and ethnic revolutionary organizations (EROs) have seized considerable ground.
The military is now engaged in multifront battles with numerous armed groups, maintaining control mainly in central areas around Mandalay, while rebels dominate much of the rural regions. In February 2024, the military’s struggles were highlighted by the implementation of a draft, calling for men aged 18-35 and women aged 18-27 to serve up to two years in military service.
Other Significant Conflicts
The Islamist insurgency in Burkina Faso and the ongoing Sudanese civil war are also critical areas of concern, with both regions experiencing significant instability and violence.
Why This Matters to You
Understanding these events and their potential impacts is critical for a wide range of organizations, from businesses and schools, to houses of worship and community organizations. By anticipating political risks and preparing accordingly, you can protect your assets, ensure the safety of your people, and maintain operational continuity.
In the face of emergencies, civil unrest, or sudden political upheavals, being knowledgeable and prepared can make a significant difference. For instance, if there is civil unrest in your area, securing your property and ensuring safety become paramount.
These preparations require advance planning and the gathering of necessary materials beforehand. Scrambling to find supplies at the last minute, along with everyone else, can lead to shortages and inflated prices, leaving you exposed and vulnerable.
Consider another scenario: a sudden political upheaval in a key region disrupts your supply chain. For manufacturers relying on specific components from abroad, any delay or disruption could halt production lines. Identifying contingency plans and alternative suppliers in advance can mitigate this risk.
Addressing these disruptions at the last minute can lead to operational paralysis and significant financial loss. Being prepared means anticipating potential issues and taking proactive measures to ensure your continuity and security.
Staying ahead of these risks not only helps in safeguarding your organization but also positions you to take advantage of emerging opportunities. By being proactive rather than reactive, you can navigate complex political risk landscapes more effectively.
About TAL Global
TAL Global specializes in security consulting and risk management, offering tailored solutions for your organization. Our experts are recognized thought leaders in conducting comprehensive risk assessments, developing strategic security plans, and delivering engaging training programs.
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