Insights from TAL Global’s Managing Directors on the Future of Risk…
What threats are emerging, and what will shape the way individuals, organizations, and nations manage risk? TAL Global’s senior advisors share their perspective on what’s coming and what leaders must be ready for.
These are professionals who have shaped crisis responses for governments, designed risk strategies for Fortune 500 companies, and guided organizations through the most volatile moments of the last two decades.
Lucien Canton explores the erosion of public trust, the role of misinformation in disaster response, and the challenges of planning for uncertainty at scale.
Societal Evolution and Social Media Impact on Emergency Response
According to Canton, loss of public trust in the formal institutions that are positioned to lead disaster response is the biggest current social concern. The explosion of fake news, disinformation and misinformation that has become one of life’s regular fares over the past few years caused a major decline in people’s confidence in government competence, transparency and the knowledge they bring to the public.
Many people have shifted their attention and confidence away from mainstream media to the multiple information dissemination sources that are dedicated to providing people with narratives that suit their perspective, and are therefore easy to absorb and believe in.
This “siloing” and polarization has had an impact on both pre-disaster planning and post-event relief operations. Remember,” says Canton, “the problems Americans experienced, and are still experiencing, with COVID prevention measures? People refused to seek assistance during last year’s hurricanes due to such disinformation.”
Emergency managers don’t really have the resources to monitor and respond to all the misinformation and disinformation generated via social media. In the business continuity world, according to Canton, the major concern is reputational risk – something bad happens and, before the professional can react, the ‘influencer’s’ world had already posted it, posting furiously and spreading misinformation wide and deep.
Consider the case of the BP chairman during the Horizon disaster or Ted Cruz and his Cancun trip. Tony Hayward, BP’s Chairman at the time, went on a cruise with his yacht, and made comments about wanting “my life back” at the height of the Deepwater Horizon crisis, one of the world’s worst oil spills and ecological disasters.
Texas Senator Ted Cruz flew to Cancun with his family as the state of Texas was suffering freezing temperatures followed by a major power outage. Senator Cruz returned almost immediately after he encountered an avalanche of bad press, claiming he was just “escorting” his family to Mexico. This showed a total lack of empathy to public suffering.
AI and Disaster Response
“The rapid introduction of AI and AI-based products to the disaster response arena makes it difficult to project its impact with confidence,” says Canton, “but it’s quite clear that AI will play a significant role in tomorrow’s disaster preparedness, response and recovery”. AI’s ability to gather and assimilate large quantities of data makes it an attractive tool for analyzing and relating to multiple evolving situations across wide areas and impacting large numbers of people in many predictable and surprising ways.
“I do think AI has the potential to make a lot of what we do, like resource allocation, and tracking, much more streamlined,” says Canton.
Canton’s main concern has to do with the ability to ascertain that AI’s inputs and analysis are not only timely, but accurate.
Looking over the immediate horizon, Canton is also concerned that the next step in AI’s evolution would be for the design of new systems so they will be able to provide “recommended actions”. Such recommendations are going to have substantial weight, and professionals in positions of responsibility and authority could then be held accountable for either following them blindly or ignoring them, based on their experience.
The trend that Canton sees evolving is using AI to write emergency plans. “On the one hand,” he says, “it wouldn’t be all that different from using templates, formats, or software as we do now, but my concern is that it might lead to skipping developing the plan with stakeholder input.” That part, according to Canton, is more important than the finished document.
About Lucien Canton
With over 30 years of experience in disaster response, hazard and risk analysis, loss mitigation and emergency planning, Lucien Canton is one of the most highly regarded veterans in this field. Canton was one of FEMA’s lead disaster response professionals, assisting in the development of both strategic and tactical disaster-response programs. His experience is not limited to design and analysis but extends to hands-on implementation and coordination of numerous field operations.
With such a resume, it is no wonder that San Francisco, one of the most vulnerable cities in the world, appointed Mr. Canton as its Director of Emergency Services. Canton served as a policy advisor to Mayor Willie L. Brown, Jr., on emergency management and homeland security issues. In that capacity, and as an independent consultant, Canton designed and carried out large scale disaster simulation exercises, an essential part of emergency preparedness for every city and/or organization that want to be prepared when the worst happens.
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About TAL Global
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